The rationale for this project reflects the concern that future climate change will further exacerbate current climatic risks. Conceptually, this is an “overlay” (to use an analogy from geographic information systems) of future climate change onto the present vulnerability. The project follows an approach to adaptation planning, which is based on scenarios of possible futures and concepts of robust decision making and social learning. It will work from the perspective of a nested multifunctional landscape to take the complexity of agro landscapes and their inhabitants into account. The generic framework of analysis will be the “Driver (Climate Change) Pressure (Land use change) State (bio geophysical and socioeconomic conditions) Impact (environmental, social and economic impacts) Response (decision making, awareness building)” framework.
A combination of data-driven analysis of land use change in relation to climate change with a
stakeholder led bottom-up approach of valuating environmental, social and economic goods and
services generated from land use will be used. These analytical activities will be instrumental to identify the leverage points for system change towards better adaptive capacity of farming systems and enhanced resilience of the agro-landscape.
The research will be conducted in two selected sites of north-eastern (Eastern Arc) and central Tanzania where significant climate change is expected to happen (e.g. Thornton et al. 2006) and where different altitudes will allow for the comparison of contrasting sites. Final selection of localities for field activities and sub-catchments for hydrological investigations will be done in consultation with national partners, in particular the lead agency for the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA).
For the downscaling of global climate scenarios to regional level the non-hydrostatic regional climate model CLM (Böhm et al. 2006a, b) will be used to generate spatial (5 km grid) and temporal (daily to hourly) high resolution climate change scenarios as drivers for the hydrological and agro-ecosystem models. This physically based model considers the complex land surface-atmosphere interactions, is suitable especially in regions with structured relief and allows generating climate data sets also for regions without historical climate time series. Hydrological catchment models determine the impact of climate and land use change on the hydrological cycle in landscapes, primarily in river basins.
Results from the more detailed SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-ATmosphere) models will be used for calibration and validation of the vegetation-soil water part of the hydrological model and results from the hydrological model are important boundary conditions for the SVAT models. Process-oriented SVAT models are required, which are able to simulate the bio-geophysical interactions between climate, soil and vegetation. These models are sensitive to changes concerning soil hydrology, nutrient cycling, and crop response to assess combined climate change and management effects on crop production, water resources and soil fertility. Furthermore, these models evaluate the best management practices for future climatic conditions. The decision, which concrete hydrological and SVAT models will be used in the project, depends on the selection of the concrete study location and will be taken in the first phase of the project. Experimental data on field and catchments scale will be obtained to test and calibrate the hydrological and agro-ecosystem models. testing
Through participatory farm/landscape appraisal methods (for example Participatory landscape
appraisal (PALA) and other appraisal methods from the TULSEA tool kit) with stakeholders from different decision making levels (farm level to landscape level), adaptation scenarios and criteria for good practices will be developed. Based on presented climate scenarios, stakeholder develop options of potential future agro-landscapes in their regions. All three sustainability dimensions (social, environmental and economic) will be taken into account by different groups of decisions makers (farmers, local politicians, local experts, etc.). Stakeholder visions will be visualised and linked to the development of good practices.
Poster presented at the 2008 Edition of Tropentag in Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa